Many people buy plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) overseas for the subsidy but never plug them in.
So although they have the potential to reach under 50g CO2 per km, real-world gasoline consumption and CO2 emissions can be far higher – which led the United Kingdom government to conclude there are better ways to save the planet.
The UK withdrew the subsidy and PHEV sales there collapsed, says IDTechEx senior technology analyst Luke Gear.
China is another region where PHEVs increasingly take a back seat, he says. In September, giant BYD sold 12,212 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) but only 6319 PHEVs.
Ten years ago, IDTechEx first forecasted 2024 as the upfront price parity date for small BEV cars vs. internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.
The new report Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2021-2041 reveals this estimate is still on track or can be met earlier in top auto markets.
But IDTechEX says the window of opportunity for PHEVs is closing.
“PHEVs are an interim product,” Gear explains.
“PHEV cars are particularly valuable to traditional automotive companies buying time as they figure out how to make desirable battery electric cars the end game.
“Manufacturers continue to launch many PHEVs but these are more complicated than alternatives, and large recalls are occurring.”
In a study of more than 100,000 PHEVs, Fraunhofer ISI and the ICCT find the UK PHEV problem to hold globally and across models.
Their white paper Real-world usage of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles – Fuel consumption, electric driving, and CO2 emissions, finds PHEVs’ real fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are two to four times higher on average than in test cycles such as NEDC or WLTP.
Policymakers use these test values to denote the climate impact of vehicles across fleets and to shape policy. The authors, therefore, recommend that actual practice drives PHEV subsidies in the future and that governments insist on smaller engines and longer electric range for PHEVs as seen in the new BMW X5 hybrid.
There is more to go wrong in a PHEV, and the batteries face challenging high-voltage duty cycles, Gear points out.
New PHEVs continue to be announced by those failing to compete with Tesla and other BEV leaders, he says.
Tesla’s bullish objective is selling 20 million BEVs in 2030 into a car market that may struggle to reach 90 million at that time, Gear believes.
Hybrids are also about to hit a peak, EVs and Beyond reported.
